Coronavirus infections and hospitalizations are rising again in the Bay Area as the region enters what public health officials say is the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
San Francisco now has the second-highest infection rate in California, averaging 40 new daily cases per 100,000 people, according to state data released Friday, behind neighboring Santa Cruz County, which has some. reported 43 per 100,000.
Both counties were reporting just 3 daily cases per 100,000 a month ago.
“I’m surprised it’s increasing so much,” said UCSF infectious disease expert Dr. George Rutherford.
San Francisco, Santa Clara, Marin and San Mateo counties – as well as Santa Cruz – had all moved to “moderate” levels of community COVID presence as of Friday, as measured by the state Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -United. The calculation is based on case rates and hospitalizations. At this level, the agency recommends that people at high risk again use face masks in public spaces.
The nine counties in the Bay Area, as well as those surrounding the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and virtually the entire California coast, are also classified as having “high” community virus transmission rates, according to a separate metric. from the CDC.
“There’s a lot of transmission going on,” Rutherford said. “No one is wearing a mask. We’re not at the same level of avoidance as we were earlier.
He added that the highly contagious BA.2 omicron subvariant and its sublines, such as BA.2.12.1, could be behind the current rise in cases, especially with waning immunity in people. people vaccinated last year and those who were previously infected. with the original strain of omicron in winter.
“I think vaccines work really well to prevent hospitalizations and deaths,” Rutherford said. “But their ability to prevent transmission is not as good as it has been.”
Hospitalizations are also starting to rise. Across the Bay Area, there are now 322 people hospitalized with the virus, up from 245 people a month ago. San Francisco reported 55 patients with COVID-19 on Friday. That number was 23 on April 6. COVID admissions to Bay Area intensive care units also climbed to 50 on Thursday, from 29 a week earlier.
These numbers remain far below those recorded during previous waves of COVID when fewer people were vaccinated and new treatments, such as antiviral drugs, were not yet available.
The city’s coronavirus test positivity rate rose slightly to 8.7%. That’s more than double California’s overall rate of 3.9% and appears to be rising sharply.
“We’re going to continue to see increases in transmission,” Rutherford said. “We will see cases. We will also see hospitalizations and deaths, but not as much as in the past. »
The newly detected BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which caused a new surge in South Africa, also cloud the future of the pandemic.
“It could make things worse,” Rutherford said. “I expect there will be a see-saw pattern going forward.”
This week, Santa Cruz County health officials urged residents to “protect mom by wearing a mask and going to well-ventilated areas” for their Mother’s Day celebrations.
Santa Cruz County Deputy Health Officer Dr. Cal Gordon told KSBW television that the county was seeing “sneaker waves” of new cases, but was unsure if that would lead to an increase.
Deaths, a lagging indicator of pandemic trends, remain low across California but are expected to rise over the next month, according to CalCat projections from the California Department of Public Health.
For the first time since February, the CDC has predicted that the number of new deaths reported from COVID-19 will likely increase over the next four weeks, with 1,600 to 4,600 new deaths nationwide likely reported over the week. ending May 28.
Bay Area health officials are hoping increased treatment options and the widespread availability of the antiviral drug Paxlovid will help stem the tide of new virus-related deaths.
Marin County pharmacies received about 500 doses of Paxlovid last week, county health officer Dr. Matt Willis said in a briefing on Wednesday.
“It went off without fanfare, but it’s a key step in our response to the pandemic,” he said. “It basically means that for the first time since the start of the pandemic, we have enough medicine in Marin to effectively treat everyone who should be treated for COVID-19.”
Willis said that although the county is highly vaccinated, the injections “are not 100%” and Paxlovid reduces serious consequences by 90%.
“For the first time, we can visualize a community with zero COVID deaths,” he said, noting it would have been “unimaginable” last year and calling the treatments a game changer.
But Willis warned that treatments are only recommended for people at high risk of serious consequences from COVID-19. Starting next week, Marin County will open three new “test to treat” sites in Novato, San Rafael and Mill Valley. In just one visit, patients can get COVID tests and prescriptions for Paxlovid, if needed.
Although the number of cases does not carry the same weight as at the start of the pandemic, public health experts fear that more cases could lead to an increase in complications from long COVID and other viruses, including including long-term cardiovascular and neurological problems that could affect health. care systems for years to come.
“It’s not something you want to achieve,” Rutherford said. “We know the long COVID can affect people who have even mild symptomatic illness. The way to avoid it is to not get it in the first place.
Aidin Vaziri (he/him) is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: avaziri@sfchronicle.com